The 2026 Maturity Wall and the Case for New Real Estate Credit Funds

Commercial real estate is heading into one of the largest loan maturity waves on record. Roughly $930 billion in CRE debt comes due in 2026, and some estimates run as high as $1.8 trillion once extended and adjustable-rate loans are counted; the spread between those figures is mostly a question of what gets counted. Much of that debt was underwritten at 3-4% interest rates and is now resetting into a 6-7% environment. Multifamily maturities alone are projected to jump 56% year over year, to about $162 billion. For several years, lenders extended and modified rather than foreclosed. That was a defensible bet while rate cuts still looked imminent, but it has concentrated a larger maturity load into a narrower window.

Residential credit is on a parallel track, driven by the same rate reset rather than by distress.